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Rubio Rises As Bush Loses Edge; Clinton Leads Among Democrats

May 10, 2015


Vidhya Murugesan
(212) 617-0586

Katelyn Ellison
Communications Specialist
New Hampshire Institute of Politics & Political Library
(603) 222-4115


Saint Anselm/Bloomberg Politics New Hampshire Primary Poll:
Rubio Rises As Bush Loses Edge; Clinton Leads Among Democrats

May 10 - A new Saint Anselm/Bloomberg Politics New Hampshire poll shows a tightly-packed GOP 2016 field, with Sen. Marco Rubio's support among likely GOP primary voters rising while Gov. Jeb Bush's has fallen off. The poll was conducted by Purple Insights. Full results:

  1. Rand Paul & Scott Walker (12%)
  2. Marco Rubio & Jeb Bush (11%)
  3. Donald Trump (8%)
  4. Chris Christie (7%)
  5. Ted Cruz (6%)
  6. Ben Carson (5%)
  7. Mike Huckabee (4%)
  8.  Carly Fiorina (3%)
  9. Lindsey Graham & Bobby Jindal & Rick Perry & John Kasich (1%)

Rubio has more than doubled his support, from 5% to 11%, since a similar poll conducted in February. Bush has dropped five percentage points to 11% since the February poll.

In the Democratic 2016 field, Hillary Clinton leads with 62% support among likely Democratic primary voters - her best showing in this poll since November, suggesting a recent wave of negative stories about the Clinton Foundation and her use of a private e-mail server have not hurt her among the party's base. Clinton's closest New Hampshire primary competitor, Sen. Bernie Sanders, has 18%.

There are warning signs for Clinton in hypothetical N.H. general-election match-ups. Three of the top-polling Republican candidates-Bush, Paul, and Rubio-are now within three points. She leads Bush (44-42%), Paul (46-43%) and Rubio (44-42%).

Additional highlights:

  • Scott Walker leads when first and second choices among likely GOP primary voters are combined - a positive sign for his prospects in N.H. He's backed by 24% in that case, followed by 21% for Bush and Paul and 20% for Rubio.
  • Paul leads the GOP field in support among independents, with 18% support. Bush is relatively weak among independents - while drawing support from 15% of Republicans, he has the backing of just 6% of independents.
  • Trump was selected by 8% of likely GOP primary voters-up 5 percentage points from February.
  • When asked to choose whether Clinton or Bush would be the next president, 33% of N.H. likely general-election voters said Clinton, 27% didn't venture a guess, 22% said someone else and 18% said Bush.

Purple Insights - the Washington-based research division of Purple Strategies - was named one of the most accurate pollsters of 2012 by Fordham University for its national and swing state polls.

Methodology: The poll was conducted May 2-6 by Washington-based Purple Insights and included 500 general-election voters as well as oversamples to have 400 Republican primary voters and 400 Democratic primary voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points on general-election questions and +/-  4.9 percentage points on primary-election questions.

Bloomberg Politics debuted on Oct. 6th and leads political coverage across all Bloomberg platforms. The website,, is a next-generation political news site that seamlessly combines up-to-the-minute news, original video, analysis, commentary, long-form features, polling, interactive graphics and live streams. Bloomberg Politics Managing Editors Mark Halperin and John Heilemann also host a half-hour television show, "With All Due Respect,” that airs at 5pm ET/PT on Bloomberg TV and

Founded in 1889, Saint Anselm College is a four-year liberal arts college providing a 21st century education in the Catholic, Benedictine tradition. Located in southern New Hampshire near Boston and the seacoast, Saint Anselm is well known for its strong liberal arts and nursing programs as well as for the New Hampshire Institute of Politics.

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