February 08, 2015
New Hampshire Institute of Politics & Political Library
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Saint Anselm/Bloomberg Politics New Hampshire Primary Poll:
Bush, Paul and Walker Lead Wide-Open GOP Primary; Clinton Continues to Dominate Among Democrats
A new Saint Anselm/Bloomberg Politics New Hampshire poll shows Jeb Bush leading a wide-open GOP field, drawing 16% support among likely Republican primary voters. The poll was conducted by Purple Strategies.
- Jeb Bush (16%)
- Rand Paul (13%)
- Scott Walker (12%)
- Chris Christie (10%)
- Mike Huckabee & Ben Carson (6%)
- Marco Rubio (5%)
- Ted Cruz & Bobby Jindal & Donald Trump (3%)
- Rick Santorum & John Kasich (2%)
- Carly Fiorina & Rick Perry (1%)
Watch a video about the NH poll:
With Mitt Romney now out of the race, no one GOP candidate has locked up his support making this the most wide-open New Hampshire primary in years.
Rand Paul has the highest favorability rating (63%) among Republican voters of the candidates in the field. Just 54% of Republican voters have an opinion of Scott Walker, but those with a favorable view outnumber those with an unfavorable view by more than 4 to 1.
Among likely Democratic primary voters, Hillary Clinton continues to have a dominating lead over her rivals with 56% support. Elizabeth Warren comes in a distant second (15%), followed by Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders (tied at 8%).
While GOP voters may be ready to support Bush, others appear to have doubts. His unfavorable rating among general election voters is 50%, compared to 35% favorable. Hillary Clinton, by contrast, has a 54% favorable rating and a 42% unfavorable score among those voters.
Of the 21 possible Democratic and Republican presidential candidates named, only Trump's unfavorable rating (66%) was higher than Bush's.
- Jeb Bush's support for allowing undocumented immigrants to stay in this country and for Common Core educational standards are cited as "deal killers" by 41% and 20% of GOP primary voters, respectively
- 69% of GOP voters say Walker's victories against public-employee unions are either a "very" or "somewhat convincing" reason to back him
- When tested against Walker, Paul and Christie, 28% of GOP primary voters picked Jeb Bush as the strongest candidate to take on Hillary Clinton; compared to 18% who each chose Walker, Paul and Christie
- Given a choice, 59% of GOP voters say the strength of Jeb Bush's campaign is based on his unique qualities and achievements, while just 31% say it's his family's connection to politics
- In contrast: 74% of Democratic voters say the strength of Hillary Clinton's campaign are her qualities and achievements; only 21% choose her family connections
Purple Insights - the Washington-based research division of Purple Strategies - was named one of the most accurate pollsters of 2012 by Fordham University for its national and swing state polls.
Methodology: The poll was conducted by Purple Insights and included 400 likely Republican primary voters, 400 likely Democratic primary voters and 503 general election voters from Jan. 31- Feb. 5. The primary election sample has a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points. The general election sample has a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent.
Bloomberg Politics debuted on Oct. 6th and leads political coverage across all Bloomberg platforms. The website, BloombergPolitics.com, is a next-generation political news site that seamlessly combines up-to-the-minute news, original video, analysis, commentary, long-form features, polling, interactive graphics and live streams. Bloomberg Politics Managing Editors Mark Halperin and John Heilemann also host a half-hour television show, "With All Due Respect,” that airs at 5pm ET/PT on Bloomberg TV and BloombergPolitics.com.
Founded in 1889, Saint Anselm College is a four-year liberal arts college providing a 21st century education in the Catholic, Benedictine tradition. Located in southern New Hampshire near Boston and the seacoast, Saint Anselm is well known for its strong liberal arts and nursing programs as well as for the New Hampshire Institute of Politics. www.anselm.edu